quinta-feira, 7 de janeiro de 2016

A neat probability puzzle

Howdy, it's been a while since I last posted. I saw a neat puzzle on Quora that I'd like to share:

Three people enter a room. Each person is assigned a hat uniformly at random: either red or blue. Each person can see the hats of the two other people, but they can't see their own hats. Each person can either try to guess the color of their own hat or pass. All three do it simultaneously, so there is no way to base their guesses on the guesses of others. 
If nobody guesses incorrectly and at least one person guesses correctly, they all share a big prize. Otherwise they all lose.
One more thing: before the contest, the three people have a meeting, during which they decide their strategy. What is the best strategy to maximize their odds of winning a prize?